Over the past several weeks, a pattern has been quietly but steadily emerging across the private credit landscape. First it was Cliffwater. Before that, BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl. Now Morgan Stanley’s $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund has joined the list—hit with a surge of investor withdrawal requests and, like the others, choosing to deny a significant portion of them.
Individually, each of these developments might be dismissed as isolated stress. But taken together, they paint a much more concerning picture—one that is increasingly drawing comparisons to the early stages of the Global Financial Crisis.
And while those comparisons are not perfect, they are not without merit.
Because beyond the obvious issues in credit and liquidity, there is another element re-emerging that many have forgotten played a crucial role in 2007–2008:
The oil shock.
The Forgotten Catalyst: Oil Before the Crisis
When most people think back to 2008, they remember the collapse—Lehman Brothers, subprime mortgages, frozen credit markets. What tends to be overlooked is what happened just before the system broke.
Oil prices surged.
In fact, crude reached record highs in mid-2008, pushing headline inflation sharply higher. At one point, CPI inflation in the United States climbed above
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