✈️ Friday Flight Log – 20 September 2024

ICYMI: THE TRADE TRAVEL CHILL WEEKLY RECAP

As we taxi toward the end of another week, let’s be honest—we were in the brace position waiting for FOMC, but all we got was a little bump as they wheeled the refreshments past. For now at least, things are on the up and up, so take a break and catch up on the bumper crop of content TTC produced for us this week.

Expect the unexpected. When things become too obvious and too many people think that something must have been, usually the opposite happens.
— Annii

TRADE

👩‍✈️ FROM THE FLIGHT DECK

Captain’s Log ✍

Did you catch all of Annii’s technical analysis this week? Here’s your recap!

• Annii’s advice at the start of the week was all about caution ahead of the FOMC meeting. The daily and 1H charts hinted at bearishness, including a star formation flirting with a close under the 50EMA, and a shaky M formation on 4H chart, but she stayed open to a bullish scenario if volume confirmed.
• Mid-week, a bullish 5-candle pattern emerged, but Annii wasn’t fully convinced due to the wick size. Her advice was to play it safe and wait for FOMC to shake out.
• $BTC reacted to the FOMC moves by hitting the 61-62k target from her Sunday’s video. 🥳 Annii shared that isn’t making new moves yet, with no clear reason to flip short or exit longs she was staying patient to see how things shake out.
• Friday update incoming… keep an eye on Annii’s channel!

 

Inflight News ⚡

• Coach Cat’s Chill Chat is live ✨TODAY✨ at 6am ET / 12pm CET / 2pm GST / 8pm AEST. Follow this link to join her to learn about embracing failure and turning it into growth! Missed it? Catch up on the recording here.
• BingX traders, read this important message about an attempted hacking attack on their hot wallet system and how they are protecting their members.

 

The Weather Report 🌦️

Macro
Jarrid’s brought the receipts to this week’s macro hangout! 🔥 It is a must-watch session to get your head around what to expect now that the Feds have started cutting interest rates. Some of the key takeaways:

• We can learn a lot by comparing this cycle and 2019.
• The market tends to rally for one to four weeks after a rate cut … before correcting.
• The shrinking Fed balance sheet limits Bitcoin’s near-term upside.👎
• It’s possible the ETH/BTC pair will bottom-out in November-December. Altcoin season Q1 2025?

To dive deeper into Jarrid’s analysis, check out the full recording. And explore more of Jarrid’s thinking on the ETH/BTC pair and timing of alt season here and here. 

PS. WALCL is the ticker for the Fed’s balance sheet and assets used to track quantitative easing, and Jarrid showed us how to use it to predict what’s next for $BTC. Line flat or down? Bad news for Bitcoin. Line ticks up? Bitcoin should too! Here’s how to find it on Trading View:

I am remaining neutral at this time. There are a lot of moving pieces (both bullish and bearish) that can take a day or two to be absorbed into the markets after a fed cut. It’s best for us to wait-and-see price action over the next 1 to 2 days to gauge which direction the market is likely to head in the short term. In the medium term, my base case for crypto and stocks is for them to head lower.
— Jarrid J

Astro

Did you see the stunning full moon partial eclipse this week? This was simultaneously a Supermoon, a Harvest Moon, and partial lunar eclipse. For traders, the Supermoon’s amplified energy may have led to impulsive decisions, while the Harvest Moon symbolized the end of a cycle, prompting us to consolidate gains and reflect on their strategies. The partial lunar eclipse added uncertainty and unpredictability, causing cautious trading behaviour. (Thank you for this insight Coach Cat!)

Harvest Moon Supermoon Partial Lunar Eclipse over NYC. “Between the cosmic energy, FOMC and Quarterly Options expiration this week – the only certainty is uncertainty!”
— Margo Amala

✈️ FROM THE MAIN CABIN

Cabin Crew Hangouts ✍️

This week Cajun’s focused on the fundamentals: identifying and validating M and W patterns using volume, EMAs, and candlestick confirmations. His most important message? It is essential to have a systematic approach and developing healthy trading habits.  

Too many people are not trading what they see, they are trading what they want to see. You have to train yourself. If you don’t see what you should be seeing, you must reassess your trade. A lot of what I do in coaching is focused on this… creating checklists, validation points, and healthy habits of assessing price action..
— CajunSpice

In Cody’s Friday hangout, the Backtest Bandits and Spreadsheet Nerds were in their element! 🤓😄 He shared his findings from back-testing 141 weeks of HOW/LOW levels 🤯 It’s revealed some powerful insights for timing entries and exits, and identifying high-probability setups. This is definitely a session to bookmark, revisit, and study!

What I found is that most of the time, when Monday gives the spike, that’s your highest probability trade for the week. If you’re trying to be very efficient with your trading, your best bet is being there for Monday Dead Gap Zone into Asia.
— Cody Selby

SilverWolf Alpha 🐺

This week, while busy with very important work in Singapore, SilverWolf:

• Reminded us to keep All Eyes on the FED after the Trump Shooting Black Swan Event. 👀 
• Provided a detailed review of Internet Computer Protocol ($ICP) and
• Shared his thoughts on current price action for $TIA, $BTC and $FET’s impressive rise. 

Follow the trail to SilverWolf’s alpha here!

$FET broke above the channel and price has been surging since then. In one week, the price has almost pumped 30%. I hope you added FET in your bags when Annii included in her portfolio list!
— SilverWolfBTC

Humblebrags 💪

I’m calling this a Linda… it is officially out of control..lol
— Progressive Martian (Kevin), Capital Club Member

TRAVEL

While Annii and SilverWolf are off enjoying Chilli Crab in Singapore at Token 2049, lots of members have also been sharing their travel adventures in Discord. Please keep the photos coming as our window into the TTC world!

@RoiBuzz had an incredible time whale watching in Hermanus, South Africa:

@datafan is enjoying an annual fall trip to Lake Kabetogama in Northern Minnesota:

@lauriannz visited her hometown, Queenstown, New Zealand, enjoying some fresh spring snow:

And @nootsie made some impressive catches from his mate’s boat!

CHILL

Mindset 💖

• Today’s Chill Chat with Coach Cat is all about embracing failure and turning it into valuable lessons for growth and long term success. Join the chat  at 6am ET / 12pm CET / 2pm GST / 8pm AEST or catch up on the recording here.
• Over in the Mindset Corner, Coach Cat also shared her 7 Layers Deep Technique to help address the trading habits that undermine us. 
• She’s also introduced new worksheets on adult triggers and inner child wounds, designed to connect the dots on these emotional challenges. There’s one resource for women and one for men, so make sure you download and make use of these.

Inflight Entertainment 📺

• @vortex recommendeds two new videos on Steve Mauro’s Beat the Market Maker channel:
  1. How market makers love to mess with our lower time-frame trade setups.   
  2. And Steve reflects on his 25-year trading career and passing on his knowledge before retiring.

• Feeling a little deflated by the bearish macro outlook? Jarrid says: “For those interested in a bullish thesis on stocks for the rest of the year. Cem Karsan, who I really respect, says stocks rally into January before a blow-off top.” Read more here. 

The best way to work on mindset is enjoying weekends.
— @awolcrypto, Capital Club Member

☀️ ON THE HORIZON 

Please note, all times are listed in New York time. Access the full calendar here.

😆 MILE HIGH MEMES 

Vitalik, never change, you hilarious, ridiculous, nerd …

 

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Thanks for reading. I appreciate the support and feedback, and love to hear ideas about how to make this recap the best it can be. Comment below or send me a DM if you have thoughts!
— Caitlin 💙