Hottest week for crypto (Fed rates, inflation)

Hello legends, I hope you all are doing well. We are entering a very crucial week that will decide the long term move for the crypto market. This is a big week. On Wednesday (September 17, 2025), the Federal Reserve meets to set interest rates. The base case on Wall Street is a 25 basis point cut, the first cut of 2025. Markets see this as the start of an easing cycle.

Here’s the strange mix: inflation is still above target, the S&P 500 is at record highs, and the job market is cooling. That’s not the usual recipe for rate cuts. But it’s the backdrop we have right now, and it’s why crypto traders are watching this decision like a hawk.

Why this cut is unusual

Normally, the Fed cuts when the economy is weak and stocks are far below highs. Not this time. Stocks keep breaking records (the S&P notched new highs last week), while valuation metrics are stretched compared with history. Bulls say AI-driven profits justify it; skeptics say we’re pushing our luck. Both can be true in the short run.

On inflation, the latest CPI report shows core inflation around 3.1%