We’re seeing oil prices surge.
We’re seeing the U.S. dollar surge.
We’re seeing liquidations in precious metals.
We’re seeing stress build in private credit.
And when you step back and connect those dots, what it tells you is simple:
The system is under pressure.
Now, some of this is event-driven risk — Iran, the Middle East, supply chain disruptions — and that makes short-term predictions difficult. We’re at the mercy of geopolitical developments in the very near term.
But the more important story isn’t the headline.
The more important story is what these moves are revealing underneath.
And what they’re revealing is fragility — particularly in global dollar liquidity and in credit markets.
So let’s walk through this step by step.
The Oil Pain Threshold Has Been Reached
Oil prices surged toward the mid-to-high $70s per barrel. Gasoline prices exploded higher — wholesale gasoline up roughly 23% in just a few trading days.
That’s not noise.
That’s a shock.
And here’s the key: governments tolerate rising oil prices — until they don’t.
There is always a pain point.
And it looks like we just found it.
The Trump administration signaled that if insurance companies refuse to insure tankers passing through
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