The 2020s: A Deflationary Decade Worse Than the 2010s?

In its June 2025 update, the World Bank quietly dropped a bombshell: global economic growth projections for 2025 have been slashed to 2.3%. That number, on its face, might not scream crisis to most people. But for those who have been closely watching markets, central banks, and the subtle signals that usually precede recessions, this forecast is more than just a red flag—it’s a confirmation of a grim trajectory.

More importantly, this projection places 2025 global growth on par with 2008 levels, right before the financial system collapsed. And according to the World Bank itself, we’re on track for the worst decade of growth in over 60 years, even worse than the already weak 2010s. This isn’t just a forecast downgrade—it’s an admission that the global economy has entered a long-term stagnation.

A Global Slowdown: Not Just About Trade Wars

The World Bank attributed the downward revision to rising trade barriers and global policy uncertainty. While those factors play a role, they hardly explain the persistent weakness evident in bond markets, inflation data, and real-world economic activity. In truth, what we’re seeing is a structural failure of the global economy to recover after the shocks of 2008 and COVID-19.

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