What’s up legends!
I’ve decided to do this update a little differently. I’m going to start with a chart of the business model to show if I believe we had a typical weekly setup or not. I’m also marking in the liquidation levels as you can clearly see the peak of these levels cause the reversals.
This week, even with all the news events, I believe we did have a typical week.
TRADE ONE – BTCUSDT
I don’t usually trade weekends but I saw the set up and knowing price usually dumps into the full moon I decided to take a chance on it. Knowing Monday is usually fake move Monday, when I saw the W formation I decided to exit.
We ended up coming down a lot more but I’m still happy with this trade.
Result: 7.3:1 RR
TRADE TWO – ETHUSDT
This was a trade I covered on the last update and had taken 50% profit. I closed this trade at the start of the new week when I believed I saw a W at the Friday low.
Result: 9.68:1 RR
TRADE THREE AND FOUR
Continuing from above, when I believed I had seen a W on both BTC and ETH after dropping all weekend I opened a long position. In hindsight I shouldn’t have taken these trades because it was only a couple of hours before a news event. At the news event I saw the volatility coming in and I cut these trades early.
Result: under 1% loss total
This was a bag flip CPI news event trade. I had been watching the 18.9k level all week as a target as it was a big liquidation level and also at the LOW. As we got closer to the news event I expected a stop hunt before drop because of what I was seeing on the heatmaps. I knew price was going to move fast so I decided to build positions rather than pick one price.
I exited when I saw the SVC at my target and bag flipped long. I knew there wasn’t much more to liquidate below here and that most longs got wiped on that move. Exited the second trade at the 3 hits to the high at the HOD. Even though it was technically rise L1, I didn’t trust the move would last and was still looking for shorts.
I basically did the same process for ETH and traded them both at the same time.
These were fairly high risk and high skill trades. I recorded this session live for First Class Members so you can see how I build positions over time and manage the trade. There’s a lot more detail in this video than what I’ve written here. If you’re in First Class and keen to watch these trades and my thoughts throughout the event, here’s the link
Result: 3:1 plus 6.26:1 RR for BTC and 3:1 & 4:1 RR for ETH
TRADE NINE AND TEN
Bag flipped again as I was still feeling bearish. At this point in time we were in a R1 so this technically was a counter trade at one but I just didn’t trust the previous night move. There was another news event that night and once we got the stop hunt right on time that was also at the ILOD, I knew we were going up for R2 so closed the short and opened a long. Did the same on ETH.
This trade wasn’t a high quality one and goes to show, the bigger gains are in following the business model exact.
Result: 2.8:1 RR on BTC, 3.5:1 RR on ETH
TRADE ELEVEN AND TWELVE
This was now the stop hunt entry of the R1 retrace and my best trades of the week. I have taken 90% profit off both of these trades and left a little on it as we are in bullish moon phase. Zooming out to the 1 hour there’s also a chance we are in L2 and Sunday/Mondays fake move might be L3 so left just a little on in case that turns out to be right. My SL has been moved up to the dotted line to protect those final profits.
Also, where the circle is on the BTC chart I believed at the time may have been R3 on the 15min TF so I opened a short there and that’s where took profits on most of my long. When we started heading up again in UK I realised there was more in it and closed the short – it was basically break even here.
Current result (not yet closed): 10.1:1 RR, no win/loss on the other trade for BTC, 10.3:1 RR for ETH
In conclusion, another super active trading week but in reality, it was only 6-10 hours or so of my time as I entered all BTC and ETH trades at the same time. ETH always pays better, it just makes sense to trade it.
First class, don’t forget to check out the video if you want to learn to trade like a MANIAC!!! 😉
See you next week!